This was published in The New Arab, in late November 2023, prior to the Houthis’ attacks on Red Sea cargo in December
Yemen has captured global
attention after the country’s Houthi rebels began launching ballistic missiles and drones at Israel in late
October.
Marking a
notable shift in their capabilities, Houthi gunmen on Sunday executed a
sophisticated operation in the Red Sea where they descended from a helicopter
and, aided by fast boats, successfully hijacked a cargo ship and directed it
to Yemen’s Hodeida port.
This ship,
named Galaxy Leader, is associated with a British company partly owned by
Abraham Ungar, one of Israel’s richest individuals.
As predicted in October, the Houthis, who are Yemen’s
most powerful faction, have now expanded their focus to the Red Sea, after
demonstrating that their advanced missile and drone technology can reach
southern Israeli cities like Eilat.
After
threatening to strike Israel and American assets in response to the Gaza
offensive, the Houthis vowed last week to target Israeli ships in the Red Sea.
“Our
eyes are open to constant monitoring and searching for any Israeli ship,”
leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said in a speech broadcast by the group’s Al-Masirah
TV station.
Red Sea security
The
Houthis’ latest move has raised concerns about potential disruptions in a vital global trade route, through which around 14
percent of global trade passes, particularly hydrocarbons.
The Red Sea
is also one of the world’s most heavily guarded trade corridors, with the US,
Britain, France, Italy, China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia having a military
presence in Djibouti, which is a mere 30km from south Yemen.
In light of
the Houthis’ declared intent to target ships, heightened security measures are
likely to be implemented to prevent future ship hijackings, particularly those
involving Israeli vessels. Last week, a US Navy ship shot down a Houthi drone
headed in its direction, while Saudi Arabia reportedly intercepted a missile en
route to Israel, revealing Riyadh’s shared regional security concerns with the
US.
Yet the
Houthis’ newfound ability to target ships in the Red Sea is a striking example
of the blowback of Yemen’s war, and how the group’s threat to the US-led
regional order has increased. This is despite the US backing and selling arms
to the Saudi-led coalition, with the hope of maintaining security in the Red
Sea and Arabian Peninsula.
And of
further concern is the potential escalation of violence in Yemen, drawing the
country deeper into what is often perceived as a proxy war between Israel and
Iran. Indeed, the Houthis’ significant support from Iran and its Lebanese
partner Hezbollah suggests at least some degree of coordinated efforts against
Israel, especially amid ongoing cross-border skirmishes between Hezbollah and
the Israeli army.
Yet their
individual attacks on Israel also aim to rally local support and popularity as
they consolidate control over northern Yemen.
Yemen: A frozen conflict?
Yemen, the
poorest Arab country, has suffered a devastating war since September 2014, when
the Houthis seized the capital Sana’a and displaced the Saudi-backed post-Arab
Spring government, prompting the Saudi Arabia-led coalition’s military
intervention in March 2015.
The United
Nations reported that from 2015 to 2022, the war had killed around 377,000 people, with most deaths
coming from indirect causes like food shortages and inadequate healthcare,
rather than from war.
Currently,
an alarming two-thirds of the Yemeni population, approximately 21.6 million
people, are in urgent need of aid, with 80 percent of the population depending
on aid to survive. Famine still looms over five million individuals, and a dire
cholera epidemic has affected over a million.
While there
has been waning focus on Yemen in recent years, and decreased attention amid
the conflict in Ukraine and now the war in Gaza, the US has continued some
diplomatic engagements.
On 13
November, US envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking travelled to the Gulf to engage with
partners from Yemen’s internationally recognised government, and Saudi,
Emirati, and Omani partners.
According
to the US Department of State, the talks aimed to “discuss the necessary steps to secure a
durable ceasefire and launch an inclusive, political process led by the UN,
while ensuring continued efforts to ease the economic crisis and suffering of
Yemenis”.
Beyond
keeping communications open with America’s partners, the latest round of talks
hasn’t dented the status quo of Yemen’s “frozen conflict,” with the Houthis
gradually becoming the de-facto rulers of north Yemen.
For now,
Yemen’s war has reached a stalemate and violence has mostly lulled after
UN-brokered ceasefires and efforts to achieve a new government. Prior to the
latest war in Gaza, there was optimism in Yemen’s peace talks after a Houthi
delegation visited Riyadh in September, the first official
visit from the group, while Saudi and Omani envoys met Houthi leaders in Sana’a
in April.
Yet there’s
been no official truce or peace treaty, rather, Yemen is stuck in a fragile
limbo that risks breeding long-term instability and causing the humanitarian
crisis to worsen.
The
Houthis’ determined push to seize Marib from Yemeni government forces since
February 2021 has floundered, despite making early gains. While expending many
resources into this goal, Marib remains elusive after the Houthis were pushed back by UAE-backed militias in January
2022. Meanwhile, Yemen’s government is treading water, struggling to assert its
influence.
The
Southern Transitional Council (STC) and allied militias, owing to the United
Arab Emirates’s backing during the war, have now formed a key force across the
south. Yet despite their quest to obtain an independent South Yemen, they’ve
reportedly been on the receiving end of sporadic attacks from Al Qaeda’s Yemen
branch, including a deadly strike in September that killed five STC
fighters.
Moreover,
Human Rights Watch recently warned that the south is suffering electricity and
water outages, while security forces have allegedly shot at protestors in Aden.
It’s also
no secret that Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) has for some time wanted
out of a war that he himself first instigated.
Ultimately,
the ambitious crown prince and de facto Saudi ruler wants to focus on the
Kingdom’s economic transformation, turning it into a regional powerhouse. To
achieve this, a peaceful southern border and de-escalation with Iran is an
essential prerequisite.
De-escalation or confrontation?
Seeking to
play it safe, however, Riyadh has sought extra protection under the US-led
security umbrella, which may seem preferable after the US deployed naval assets
to the Red Sea as the Israel-Gaza war erupted. This also remains true for the
UAE, which is a major party in Yemen’s war. This may also trigger prompts from
Washington to push for a more de-escalatory stance.
While it
may pursue de-escalation, Washington could also be on guard over further Houthi
operations, which could further complicate the country’s peace process.
Following the cargo ship incident, Washington has mulled re-designating the Houthis a terrorist
group, which may harm past trust-building measures from peace efforts.
In June,
the White House announced it was still running a minor military
presence in Yemen. Although the report said the small force was aimed at
countering Al Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) in Yemen, further details, including
numbers, were kept a secret.
Unlike Iran’s allies in Syria and Iraq, the Houthis have
largely avoided targeting American assets, despite the fact some are closer to
Yemen, such as Washington’s base in Djibouti, showing the rebels are trying to
avoid eliciting harsher actions from Washington.
As for
Israel, despite being a target of Houthi strikes, it has focused more on its
military and political objectives in Gaza, as well as on skirmishes with
Hezbollah, which poses a more immediate security threat.
Yet as
Houthi attacks continue, an eventual Israeli retaliation, or efforts to
undermine the group, shouldn’t necessarily be ruled out, particularly if the
Houthis are able to cause disruptions to Israel. This may also depend on how
much longer Israel’s war on Gaza continues.
Unless the situation further escalates and spirals out of control, Washington and Riyadh
may pursue further de-escalation with the Houthis to ensure that the Red Sea is
not disrupted. This would lead to an extra focus on negotiations, which may in
turn bolster the Houthis as a political entity in Yemen.However, if trust further breaks down, Yemen may endure the absence of a political
solution, which will prolong its already dire security and humanitarian
situation.
Jonathan Fenton-Harvey 